lowercase thought.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
"Complex Interdependence" and Middle East conflict
At the bottom of a BBC news article today, I found the following:
This reminded me of an international political theory known as "complex interdependence" which was developed by Joseph Nye and Robert Keohane which describes more accurately the rising power of international organizations and movements as opposed to the declining power of the nation-state. Through this lens (a viewpoint I regularly take), it seems only natural that Roed-Larsen's concern is increasingly becoming reality as the borders between the state actors in the Middle East are less of a deterrant to the real threats in the region--armed religious and ethnic groups.
Take for instance the on-going--and escalating--conflict between the Kurds and various other actors. Groups such as the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party/Kongra-Gel) and most recently the TAK (Kurdistan Freedom Falcons) have been stepping up military and terrorist operations against both Turkey and Iran for years now, taking advantage of the relative safe haven provided by the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq. As noted by Juan Cole today, "Sawt al-Iraq says that Kurdish villages along the border with Turkey have been subjected to 90 artillery barrages in recent months. The Turks charge that the villages have given safe haven to PKK extremists that have blown up things inside Turkey."
The Turks are right: there doesn't seem to be much stomach, or better yet ability, among Iraqi leadership (or American leadership for that matter) to really reign-in the PKK and other groups by security crack-down. As such, Kurdish militants have been able to plan and coordinate terrorist activities across the border with relative ease. Multiply this situation by a factor of 30 or more, and you now see the difficulty on keeping a lid on the boiling pot known as the Middle East.
If there was one thing the Bushie neo-cons had right all along, it's that America's involvement in Iraq would have far-ranging consequences throughout the Middle-East. Of course, they were completely wrong not only about what those consequences would be, but how those consequences would be spread. Instead of being spread by the shining example of a democratic Iraq, the current trend of destabilizing armed conflict is instead being transported by interstate ethnic and/or faith-based actors.
It's a strange form of "complex interdependence," and one which Keohane and Nye, and certainly America's neo-con leadership, perhaps did not focus enough on.
Speaking after briefing the [Security] council, [U.N. Regional Envoy Terje] Roed-Larsen said increased evidence that fighters and weapons were crossing into Lebanon was "alarming and deeply disturbing".
He also told reporters that the general picture of the situation in the Middle East was "very dark, and apparently getting darker".
He said the emergence of new and interlinked issues - such as Iraq, Iran and Syria-Lebanon - was complicating efforts to promote peace.
"The new phenomenon seems to be that all these conflicts are now completely intertwined so that it is very difficult, maybe impossible, to find a solution to one of them without finding a solution to all of them."
This reminded me of an international political theory known as "complex interdependence" which was developed by Joseph Nye and Robert Keohane which describes more accurately the rising power of international organizations and movements as opposed to the declining power of the nation-state. Through this lens (a viewpoint I regularly take), it seems only natural that Roed-Larsen's concern is increasingly becoming reality as the borders between the state actors in the Middle East are less of a deterrant to the real threats in the region--armed religious and ethnic groups.
Take for instance the on-going--and escalating--conflict between the Kurds and various other actors. Groups such as the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party/Kongra-Gel) and most recently the TAK (Kurdistan Freedom Falcons) have been stepping up military and terrorist operations against both Turkey and Iran for years now, taking advantage of the relative safe haven provided by the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq. As noted by Juan Cole today, "Sawt al-Iraq says that Kurdish villages along the border with Turkey have been subjected to 90 artillery barrages in recent months. The Turks charge that the villages have given safe haven to PKK extremists that have blown up things inside Turkey."The Turks are right: there doesn't seem to be much stomach, or better yet ability, among Iraqi leadership (or American leadership for that matter) to really reign-in the PKK and other groups by security crack-down. As such, Kurdish militants have been able to plan and coordinate terrorist activities across the border with relative ease. Multiply this situation by a factor of 30 or more, and you now see the difficulty on keeping a lid on the boiling pot known as the Middle East.
If there was one thing the Bushie neo-cons had right all along, it's that America's involvement in Iraq would have far-ranging consequences throughout the Middle-East. Of course, they were completely wrong not only about what those consequences would be, but how those consequences would be spread. Instead of being spread by the shining example of a democratic Iraq, the current trend of destabilizing armed conflict is instead being transported by interstate ethnic and/or faith-based actors.
It's a strange form of "complex interdependence," and one which Keohane and Nye, and certainly America's neo-con leadership, perhaps did not focus enough on.
Docciavelli 12:59 PM